Turkish buyers of thermal coal are facing limited supplies of Russian fuel amid exporters having already sold available volumes and ongoing logistical risks.

Russian coal prices in Turkey have increased due to limited supply and continued logistical risks in the Black Sea. This has led to higher prices and increased sea freight costs, while some shipments are beginning to be redirected to Baltic ports. The Kommersant newspaper reported this, citing a review by NEFT Research.

According to NEFT Research, during the week ending July 17, the price of thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal/kg on the Turkish market rose by 3.6% to $107 per tonne on a CIF basis.

Analysts note that Turkish consumers are gradually returning to replenishing their stocks, but they are facing a shortage of supply from Russian exporters, who have already sold available volumes.

Logistics remain a risk factor

Additional pressure is coming from continued tensions in the Black Sea.

Analysts recall that on July 22, a bulk carrier transporting coal from the Russian port of Taman to the Turkish port of Trabzon was attacked. This increased market participants’ concerns about the stability of supplies.

According to A. Kotov, a consulting partner at NEFT Research, alternatives include shipments from the port of Ust-Luga through the Mediterranean Sea, as well as a railway route through Azerbaijan and Georgia. However, both options are significantly more expensive than the traditional Black Sea route.

Against this backdrop, the cost of shipping coal from Ust-Luga to Turkey increased by 1.9% over the week, reaching $26.4 per tonne.

At the same time, export prices also increased.

Some supplies may shift to the Baltic region

Turkey remains the largest Western buyer of Russian coal. According to NEFT Research estimates, in 2025 supplies increased by approximately 34.6%, reaching around 35 million tonnes.

Previously, the attractiveness of the Turkish market for Russian suppliers had already increased due to changes in European price conditions. In April 2026, thermal coal prices in Turkey exceeded the European CIF ARA index for the first time since July 2023. Analysts linked this to reduced supplies from alternative producers, high freight costs, and Russian exporters’ refusal to maintain some discounts. However, further growth potential was limited by logistics expenses and demand levels.

Experts note that in June–July, Russian exporters redirected part of their volumes to more profitable markets, resulting in limited availability for Turkish buyers.

According to P. Gamov, an expert at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, the Turkish market may face a shortage of 0.8–1.5 million tonnes of Russian coal over the next 2–3 months. He added that unstable shipping conditions, insurance restrictions, and rising freight costs could lead to a 25–35% year-on-year decline in shipments through the ports of the Azov–Black Sea basin in July.

Under these conditions, some supply flows are already shifting toward the Baltic region. However, analysts point out that longer logistics routes increase transportation costs and reduce the profitability of deliveries to Turkey.

According to O. Yemelchenkova, junior director for corporate ratings at Expert RA, the supply shortage in the Turkish market is expected to continue at least in the coming weeks. If disruptions to shipments through the Black Sea continue, the market could face a shortage of up to 10–12 million tonnes of coal in the second half of the year, while Baltic infrastructure capacity is limited in its ability to fully compensate for these volumes.